Critical Step 1.1.1: Applying time-series models to evaluate impacts of variability in contaminant delivery

Project team:  

Lead: Sandy Elliott

Chris McBride

Catherine Moore

John Quinn


Project description:

Linked catchment and lake models are useful for predicting how lake water quality will change over time and in response to management actions. We are developing and demonstrating the use of such linked models for multiple lakes in New Zealand. A key science question is whether the catchment models need to provide day-to-day variations in contaminant loading to the lake, or whether it is acceptable to use inputs averaged over time.


Links to other critical steps:

CS1.1.2: Scalable models based on an integrated geospatial platform


Action partnerships:

  • Waikato Regional Council (data collection and lake modelling)

  • Nga Muka Development Trust


Current work:

  • Nutrient loadings to >2600 lakes nationally have been calculated using the CLUES catchment model and incorporated into Takiwa Lakes online geospatial platform.

  • High-frequency water quality data have been collected at inflows to Lake Waikare from the Lake Waikare lake buoy.

  • Catchment-lake models have been established for several lakes under co-funding, in preparation for conducting numerical experiments on temporal sensitivity in 2017-18.


Key sites:

Lake Waikare (Waikato)

Lake Tutira (Hawkes Bay)

Te Waihora/Lake Ellesmere (Canterbury)

Lake Wairarapa (Greater Wellington)

All lakes nationally


Outputs:

Journal Publications

  • Luo L, Hamilton D, Lan J, McBride C, Trolle D. 2018. Autocalibration of a one-dimensional hydrodynamic-ecological model (DYRESM 4.0-CAEDYM 3.1) using a Monte Carlo approach: simulations of hypoxic events in a polymictic lake. Geoscientific Model Development, 11, 903-913.

  • Bruce LC, Frassl MA, Arhonditsis GB, Gal G, Hamilton DP, Hanson PC, ... & Rigosi, A. 2018. A multi-lake comparative analysis of the General Lake Model (GLM): Stress-testing across a global observatory network. Environmental Modelling & Software, 102, 274-291.

  • Jones HFE, Ozkundakci D, McBride CG, Pilditch CA, Allan MG, Hamilton DP. 2018. Modelling interactive effects of multiple disturbances on a coastal lake ecosystem: Implications for management. Journal of Environmental Management, 207, 444-455.

  • Ndong M, Bird D, Quang TN, Kahawita R, Hamilton DP, de Boutray ML, Prévost M, Dorner S. 2017. A novel Eulerian approach for modelling cyanobacteria movement: Thin layer formation and recurrent risk to drinking water intakes. Water Research 127: 191-203.

Tools

Contracted Reports

  • Abell J, McBride C, Hamilton D. 2018. Lake Water Quality Modelling to Estimate Sustainable Nutrient Loads to Lake Tarawera. ERI Report No. 112. Environmental Research Institute, Faculty of Science and Engineering, The University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand.

  • Allan MG, Hamilton DP, Muraoka K.  2018. A coupled hydrodynamic-ecological model to test management options for restoration of lakes Onoke and Wairarapa. ERI Report No. 111. Environmental Research Institute, Faculty of Science and Engineering, The University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand.

  • Dada AC, Hicks BJ, Ling N, Hamilton DP. 2018. Assessment of effects of proposed treated wastewater discharge to the Te Arikiroa Thermal Channel and Sulphur Bay (Lake Rotorua). ERI Report No. 91. Client report prepared for Rotorua Lakes Council.  Environmental Research Institute, The University of Waikato.

  • Verburg P, Albert A. 2018. Lake Taupo Long-term Monitoring Programme, 2016 - 2017. Prepared for Waikato Regional Council. NIWA report 2018153HN, 163 pp.

  • Hughes, A. 2018. Matahuru Stream water quality monitoring - data report. Prepared for Waikato Regional Council. NIWA Client Report No: 2018148HN.  

  • Hamilton DP, Dada CA., McBride CG. 2017. Water quality modelling of Te Waihora/Lake Ellesmere. ERI Report No. 100. Environmental Research Institute, Faculty of Science and Engineering, The University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand.

  • Me W, Hamilton DP, Abell JM. 2017. Simulating discharge and pollutants from the Waipa Stream catchment under different irrigation scenarios using the SWAT model. ERI Report No. 98. Client report prepared for Rotorua Lakes Council.  Environmental Research Institute, The University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand.

  • Lehmann MK, Hamilton DP, Muraoka K, Tempero GW, Collier KJ, Hicks BJ. 2017.  Waikato Shallow Lakes Modelling. ERI Report No. 94. Environmental Research Institute, The University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand.

  • McBride, C.G. and Hamilton D.P.  2016.  Catchment and lake water quality modelling to assess management options for Lake Tutira. ERI Report No. 97. Client report prepared for Hawke's Bay Regional Council.  Environmental Research Institute, Faculty of Science and Engineering, The University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand. 76 pp.


Conference Presentations

  • McBride C, Hamilton D. 2017. Modelling lake-ocean exchange and water quality response to nutrient loading in a supertrophic, intermittently closed and open coastal lake. Poster presentation, GLEON 19, New Paltz, NY, USA December 2017.

  • Hamilton D, McBride C, Lehmann M, Tempero G, Taitoko M, Ullrich T, Burnie S. 2017. Modelling of trophic state of New Zealand lakes and visualisation with the geospatial platform Takiwa. Oral presentation, 5th Biennial Symposium of the International Society for River Science: Integrating Multiple Aquatic Values. Hamilton, New Zealand. 19-24 November 2017.